Herd immunity: Is the peak of the corona close and will a decline begin after it?

This is according to a study by Ben-Gurion University. The Technion and the University of Haifa separately state that courteous enforcement will help stop the epidemic

In the next two weeks, the State of Israel will reach “herd immunity” – a scenario in which the percentage of infections in the population will be high enough for the number of infections to decline, according to a new study conducted by Prof. Mark Lest of the Department of Software and Information Systems Engineering at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev. According to the findings of the study, in this condition, a sick person will infect on average less than one person (in contrast to the current situation) and thus the number of patients will gradually decrease. The analysis was based on the morbidity data of the Ministry of Health in Israel as well as on proven epidemiological models.

Prof. Lest’s findings support the steps taken by the person in charge of the fight against the virus, Prof. Roni Gamzo, who announced a series of possible measures to reduce the spread of the virus in Israel. According to Prof. Lest: “The State of Israel must preserve the current situation in order to reduce the number of those infected as soon as possible. There is no need to make a total closure, as we will reach a declining trend in the near future. However, in the event of multi-participant social gatherings during the Tishrei holidays, citizens will be exposed to a higher-than-recommended number of people, which could be an opening for a new outbreak of the virus. Gamzo’s steps are blessed and will benefit us over time. “

In his study, Prof. Lest compared the State of Israel to the European countries Greece, Italy and Sweden, which are similar in certain characteristics to Israel. According to him, compared to these countries, the spread of the virus in Israel is more severe at this time and our morbidity is still high. However, “if you get sick in Corona – then it’s better in Israel. Our treatment is more effective than the countries examined and probably from other other countries. “

Referring to the analysis of the findings of corona patients in Israel, Prof. Lest noted that no country currently has an organized clinical database of corona patients. In Israel, for example, the number of corona patients and mortality rates from the disease are published, but there is no accessible database with clinical data at the individual patient level, such as medical history, number of sick days, location of infection, and the like. According to Prof. Lest: “According to the Ministry of Health, this is a protection of patients’ privacy, but there is no need for patient names and other identifying information. An anonymous database can be built with clinical details that will allow researchers in Israel and around the world to understand more about the disease.

In the attached picture you can see a current forecast for the coming months according to which at the end of August-beginning of September we will reach a peak of infections in Israel and from there a gradual decrease in the number of patients will begin.

Researchers at the Technion and the University of Haifa – Friendly enforcement will increase public compliance with guidelines

Friendly Enforcement – This is the approach that will improve the public’s compliance with behavior – related guidelines in the days of Corona. This is what researchers from the Technion and the University of Haifa claim in an opinion piece in the journal Nature Human Behavior. The authors of the article are Prof. Edo Arab and Dr. Uri Plonsky from the Davidson Faculty of Industrial Engineering and Management at the Technion and their colleague Dr. Yafim Roth from the Faculty of Welfare and Health Sciences at the University of Haifa.

According to the three researchers, rare adverse events such as an epidemic provoke two conflicting reactions in the public; One is panic, meaning overreaction, and the other is complacency, meaning lack of reaction (“It will not happen to me”). Indeed, a survey conducted in the United States in the midst of the current epidemic found that 31% of residents believe that the public takes overreactions while 40% believe that it takes overreactions. “These and those are right,” says Prof. Arab. “Today we know that people tend to react with excessive anxiety when they hear about impending threats, but the routine of life in the shadow of the threat may move them to the other side of the barricade – complacency.”

As an example of the rapid transition from panic to complacency, Prof. Arab cites the example of removable panels against the theft of sound systems from vehicles. “For a relatively short period of time there was enthusiasm for these devices due to the fear of theft, but in the end most of the buyers stopped pulling out the panel when they left the car. “Surprisingly, many people persist in ‘it will not happen to me’ behavior even after experiencing theft and accidents.”

According to the researchers, the main factor in the transition to complacency is the tendency of people to behave in a way that has yielded the best results in most similar situations in the past. One reason for this is that in many cases, dangerous behaviors – crossing a road not crossing, for example – save time and effort.

And so it is with the plague. With the arrival of the corona in Israel, the majority of the public became tense in the face of danger and tended to comply with the guidelines of social distance and hygiene, and at the national level, too, the government took the sharp measures of total closure. Over time, many citizens began to act as if it were not a dangerous disease. Added to this is the fact that not only is the disease contagious, but also complacency is contagious, and so a person who sees around him many people who break the rules will also tend to be less and less careful.

The good news is, according to the researchers, that this phenomenon has a solution: friendly enforcement. One example of this is tracking apps. “Extensive voluntary use of such applications will greatly increase the effectiveness of epidemiological investigations, but today only a small minority use them. In order to increase the public’s cooperation in this matter, it is possible, for example, to require people entering closed public places to fill out various declaration forms, while for users of the applications to allow quick entry. In such a situation, many people will tend to prefer the use of applications, and truncating the infection circles will be much faster and more effective.

The article is supported by the Israel Science Foundation (ISF).